By Jamie Martin
In its latest STEO report, EIA predicts higher natural gas prices this winter due to increased heating demand from cold weather. The Henry Hub price is expected to average nearly $4.30 per million British thermal units, up from November’s forecast. The report also anticipates declining global crude oil prices through 2026 and steady growth in U.S. electricity generation.
Key U.S. energy indicators show lower Brent crude oil prices, falling gasoline prices, higher liquefied natural gas exports, and electricity generation shifting slowly toward renewable sources. EIA projects U.S. GDP will grow modestly through 2026, while carbon emissions remain relatively stable.
The agency also released updated global oil inventory expectations. Rising inventories in 2026 are likely to keep Brent crude oil prices near $55 per barrel as OPEC+ limits production increases. Electricity generation is expected to rise due to increased demand from data centers in Texas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Coal consumption is forecast to rise in 2025 because of higher natural gas prices but will decline again in 2026 as renewable energy expands. EIA also updated its Winter Fuels Outlook, showing higher heating costs for homes using natural gas.
The full December 2025 STEO report is available on the EIA website, and the January 2026 version will include updated data through 2027.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced an important upgrade to its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasting system. The modernization will replace the agency’s 25-year-old model with a more flexible and data-driven system designed to better support the country’s changing energy landscape. EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey emphasized that the new system will produce faster, more integrated, and more accurate forecasts.
The upgrade will be completed in phases. A new upstream forecasting model will be introduced this spring, with full system completion expected in 2027. The modernized STEO system will include improved data architecture, automated processing, real-time visualization tools, and clear documentation to help users understand energy trends.
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