Tight Supply Pushes Ground Beef Costs to All-Time High

By Blake Jackson

The average retail price of ground beef hit a new record in June 2025, reaching $6.12 per pound, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This marks an increase from $5.98 in May and $5.47 in June 2024. While prices for certain beef cuts may ease as the peak grilling season ends, ground beef remains historically expensive.

“Tight cattle supplies and continued strong demand are keeping beef prices high,” said Danyelle Chinn, research analyst at the University of Missouri Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF). “It’s a positive signal for Missouri’s cattle producers, but it also means consumers are feeling the impact at the store.”

Drought and high costs behind supply shortages

Wesley Tucker, MU Extension agricultural business policy specialist, explained that “multiple years of drought and low profitability forced beef producers to shrink their herds in recent years.” With forage scarce in summer and hay supplies strained in winter, ranchers sold off significant portions of their herds and couldn’t retain heifers for breeding.

“A large section of the production factory the cow herd has been lost,” Tucker noted. High input costs further discouraged herd expansion, leaving “current beef cow numbers are the lowest they have been since 1961.”

Adding to the challenge, new World screwworm infestations moving north from southern Mexico prompted the USDA to halt cattle imports from the country. “Feedlots in southern parts of the country rely on Mexican cattle to keep feedlots full, so this further shortens the beef supply,” Tucker said. Potential tariffs could also tighten supplies.

Despite higher prices, demand remains strong, fueled by grilling season and high-protein diet trends. “Markets are the result of supply and demand,” Tucker said. “The current situation is the perfect storm of limited supply and strong demand colliding to produce record prices.”

Tucker noted that rebuilding the herd will take years, and in the short term, “consumers could face even higher prices as the herd is being rebuilt.” Economic downturns or shifts in global trade could eventually ease prices, but for now, “consumers are forced to stretch their pocketbook at the meat case.”

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