By Jamie Martin
The US cattle herd has hit a new low, with the USDA reporting just 94.2 million cattle and calves on July 1, 2025. This marks the lowest mid-year count on record since 1973. While herd liquidation has dominated recent years due to high costs and drought, beef prices continue to climb, making it harder for consumers to afford beef at grocery stores.
The challenges for ranchers have been compounded by a combination of rising feed costs, high interest rates, and prolonged drought. Although some ranchers are starting to consider rebuilding their herds, the process is expected to be slow. “The latest USDA numbers offer ‘very little indication of much herd rebuilding or anything very aggressive,’ said Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University,” Freitas Jr reported. “The number of heifers in feedlots remained mostly stable relative to that for steers, suggesting ranchers are not meaningfully retaining females for breeding. ‘We are probably stabilizing cattle numbers, but we’re not growing yet.”
Adding to the pressure is the suspension of cattle imports from Mexico, a significant supplier of beef to the US. The New World Screwworm infestation has led to a halt in imports from southern Mexico, further tightening the US beef supply. This shortage has caused a surge in imports from countries like Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand, which are helping to fill the gap.
With the US heavily relying on imports and the threat of tariffs looming, beef prices are expected to remain high well into 2026. These combined factors are placing significant pressure on both consumers and businesses in the beef supply chain.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-imaginegolf
Categories: National