FAPRI Report - Key Agricultural Market Trends for 2025

By Blake Jackson

The 2025 financial landscape for U.S. farmers presents a mixed picture, with crop producers facing declining prices and cattle producers experiencing record highs. This complex scenario is further complicated by uncertainties in trade policies and government programs.

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri recently released its annual agricultural market baseline outlook, offering 10-year projections for agricultural and biofuels markets.

This report, based on January 2025 market data and economic forecasts, serves as a crucial tool for evaluating various agricultural policy scenarios.

A key finding indicates a potential, albeit temporary, rebound in net farm income in 2025, primarily due to government payments.

However, FAPRI director Pat Westhoff warns of a return to a downward trend in 2026. “Net farm incomes have faced substantial pressure in the last few years, and while one-time government payments are expected to provide some temporary relief in 2025, this brief rebound could give way to declines in later years,” Westhoff said.

Crop producers are particularly affected by declining returns. FAPRI research economist Bob Maltsbarger notes that combined returns for major U.S. crops are projected to halve compared to the 2021-22 marketing year, while production expenses remain high. “After the peak in the 2021-22 marketing year, crop returns have steadily declined,” Maltsbarger said.

Conversely, cattle prices are soaring, reaching record levels in 2025. Pork and poultry production are also on the rise, driven by increased productivity.

The growth of renewable diesel production has boosted demand for vegetable oils, impacting related markets. Egg prices, affected by avian influenza, remain volatile.

Consumers continue to experience food price inflation, with meat and egg prices contributing to a projected 2.6% increase in 2025.

FAPRI co-director Julian Binfield emphasizes the importance of understanding these market shifts. “FAPRI’s baseline report, and other publications, serve as a tool for farmers and policymakers to assess future risks and opportunities in agricultural markets,” Binfield said.

This annual report provides insights into key economic indicators, aiding stakeholders in navigating the evolving agricultural landscape.

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