International factors influencing corn prices

Tuesday, October 10, 2023

After a year of record corn yields in some areas and severe drought in others, the 2024 corn outlook is uncertain.

Production

One key question is how much corn producers will plant in 2024. Input costs remain high, and prices for December 2024 corn continue to decline. However, the cost of production for Missouri producers is estimated to decline by 6-8% in 2024.

Demand

Corn demand has been weak in recent years, and there are a number of factors that could continue to weigh on demand in 2024. Low Mississippi River levels could limit barge traffic and increase transportation costs. Railroad worker strikes and the lack of ability to move ethanol could also disrupt demand. Additionally, Brazil is expected to produce another record corn crop in 2024, which could make it difficult for US corn to compete in international markets.

International Factors

The war in Ukraine could continue to disrupt international feed grain supplies, which would support corn prices. However, it is unlikely that Chinese corn imports will reach the levels seen in 2021/22. Additionally, Mexico is considering a ban on non-GMO corn, which could reduce demand for US corn.

Outlook for 2024 US Corn Prices

There are several factors that could influence US corn prices in 2024, including Chinese corn import demand, Ukrainian feed grain production, Mississippi water levels, Southern Hemisphere corn production, and a potential GMO corn ban by Mexico.

Overall, the world currently has enough corn to supply end users, and the season average price for 2023/24 is estimated to be $4.95 per bushel.