By Jamie Martin
The USDA has released an early outlook suggesting a slightly more positive year for U.S. agriculture in 2026. As reported by Agri-Pulse’s Oliver Ward, Kim Chipman, and Steve Davies, USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez said farmers may finally see production costs stabilize after years of steady increases.
Inflation-adjusted expenses for inputs such as seed, fertilizer, and crop chemicals are expected to decline slightly. While some producers may still face small cost increases, USDA said the overall trend points toward moderation, which could help improve farm profitability.
Crop prices are also forecast to move higher. Corn, soybeans, and wheat are each expected to gain about 10 cents per bushel, while cotton prices could increase by three cents per pound. USDA officials described the price movement as gradual improvement rather than a rapid recovery, noting that agriculture continues to work through long-term challenges between costs and returns.
Planting patterns are expected to change in 2026. Farmers are projected to increase soybean acreage to about 85 million acres due to stronger profitability and improved export demand. Corn acreage is expected to decline to 94 million acres, while wheat plantings may drop slightly. Overall acreage for major crops is forecast to decrease by about 1 percent.
USDA’s early projections show corn yields falling slightly to 183 bushels per acre, resulting in lower total production compared to the previous record year. Soybean yields are expected to remain steady, but total output could rise because of expanded acreage.
Export trends also reflect shifting global competition. Corn exports are forecast to decline as South American supplies grow, while soybean exports are expected to increase. Domestic soybean crushing demand is projected to reach record levels due to strong demand for feed and biofuel products. Wheat exports may decline slightly as global competitors increase supply.
Overall, USDA expects 2026 to bring steady improvement, giving farmers more stability as they make planting and marketing decisions.
Photo Credit: usda
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