By Jamie Martin
USDA’s latest outlook points to a record corn harvest of 16.7 billion bushels and yields above 188 bushels per acre. Soybean yields sit just under 54 bushels per acre—strong, but not a record. These large crops arrive as trade frictions intensify, complicating sales and pressuring already thin margins.
After decades of surpluses, U.S. agricultural trade slipped into deficit in 2019. The first six months of 2025 show a record deficit near $29 billion, including a $4.1 billion gap in June. Exports to China totaled only $5.5 billion in the first half, far below last year. Soybean commitments for 2025/26 were just over 3 million metric tons by late July, a 20-year low for the date, with China absent so far.
Livestock trends may lift retail prices. USDA projects 2025 beef production at almost 26 billion pounds, down around 4% year over year on reduced slaughter and lighter carcass weights. Pork output is expected just under 28 billion pounds, slightly below 2024. Tighter supplies can translate to firmer meat prices for consumers.
Rural America remains central to the nation. Ninety-seven percent of U.S. land is rural and about 68.4 million people—20% of the population—live there. SNAP helps roughly 16% of rural residents and 11% in metro areas.
Tariffs are raising costs across the farm supply chain. Fertilizer deliveries have slowed, equipment prices are rising, and buyers are cautious amid uncertainty. With average tariff rates near 15.2%, and grain prices easing, many farms face negative returns.
University of Illinois economist Gary Schnitkey expects that payments from the One Big Beautiful Bill could soften losses, but he advises building plans to endure four to five years of low returns. "The farmer has to be an optimist, or he wouldn’t still be a farmer." said Will Rogers.
Photo Credit:gettyimages-studio2013
Categories: National