Farm Income Forecast Hits $177 Billion in 2025

By Blake Jackson

Net farm income in the United States is projected to reach $177 billion in 2025, a notable increase from $128 billion in 2024, according to the latest annual update from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri’s College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources.

The rise in income is largely driven by record cattle prices and substantial one-time government payments. However, falling crop prices and anticipated reductions in future government support raise concerns for 2026.

“Despite strong income this year, much of the gain is temporary,” said Pat Westhoff, director of FAPRI. “As emergency payments dry up and crop prices remain weak, we project a $31 billion decline in farm income next year.”

The report incorporates data through August 2025, including USDA crop production estimates and economic forecasts from S&P Global. It also reflects updates to farm programs and tax credits related to biofuel production included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in July.

Key findings include significant declines in corn prices due to record production, with the 2025-26 marketing year average projected at $4.05 per bushel, slightly above USDA projections.

Soybean prices are expected to rise modestly to $10.16 per bushel due to reduced acreage and strong biofuel demand. Other crops, including wheat, rice, sorghum, and barley, face price pressures from large global supplies, while cotton prices benefit from a smaller crop, reaching 66.5 cents per pound.

Cattle prices are at record highs, supported by tight supplies and strong domestic demand, though production increases are expected to moderate prices in 2026.

Dairy production is rising with improved cow numbers and yields, but higher supply has suppressed cheese and butter prices, with exports helping to offset the impact.

Food price inflation is projected to rebound to 2.9% in 2025, largely driven by beef prices, which could increase more than 10% for the year. Inflation for food-at-home is expected to ease in 2026, while restaurant costs continue to climb.

“These forecasts are conditional on current policies and market expectations,” Westhoff said. “They provide a useful benchmark for evaluating potential impacts of economic shifts, weather events and future policy changes.”

For full report visit, https://fapri.missouri.edu/publications/2025-baseline-update/

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