By Jamie Martin
Although early forecasts anticipated a downturn, U.S. beef exports in 2024 held strong. Challenges such as record-high cattle and beef prices, a strong U.S. dollar, and lower projected production were expected to hinder trade, yet exports exceeded initial estimates.
The USDA initially projected 2024 beef exports at 2.8 billion pounds, alongside a production forecast of 26.2 billion pounds.
However, by year-end, exports reached 3 billion pounds, and production climbed to 27 billion pounds-nearly mirroring 2023 figures. This increase was fueled by unexpectedly high beef output and steady global demand, despite rising prices.
Though the U.S. beef cow herd declined from 2019 to 2024, production remained stable. Heavier carcass weights, increased heifer feeding due to drought in key regions, and the integration of beef genetics in dairy cattle contributed to this outcome.
Carcass weights averaged 20–25 pounds more than the previous year, offsetting the loss of over 716,000 beef cows in 2023.
Due to limited feeder cattle availability and lower feed costs, feedlots retained cattle for longer periods, allowing packers to maintain supply. Choice beef cut-out values exceeded $300 per hundredweight, reflecting strong demand.
Fed-cattle prices also outperformed expectations, averaging $187 per hundredweight-higher than the USDA’s early projection of $178.25. Though export volume remained similar to 2023, higher prices increased the total export value by 6%.
Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Canada have historically been key markets for U.S. beef, with China rising to prominence following the 2020 U.S.-China Phase One trade deal. South Korea has steadily gained ground, challenging Japan as the top export destination.
Looking ahead, the USDA forecasts 2025 beef exports to decline to 2.6 billion pounds as production falls to 25.8 billion pounds.
However, fed-cattle prices are expected to reach another record high of $195.50 per hundredweight. Despite market challenges, the U.S. remains a leader in premium beef exports, contributing significantly to the industry’s economic strength.
Photo Credit:gettyimages-pamwalker68
Categories: National